Keep Walking....!

A man was traveling by ship 🚢. One night there was a storm and the ship wrecked! Later, the man found himself isolated on an island 🌴. He felt devastated and disgusted and  started cursing God for putting him in trouble and then started looking for food! 

These were very hot days with harsh and scorching sun, making life miserable on such a dry and deserted island!

After couple of weeks of suffering alone on the island, he had lost all hope and started praying to God! He even built a small hut made out of dried leaves and sticks.

On such a scorching day he stepped out for food but couldn't find any and came back hungry and tired. With loss of all hopes, he felt like dying as he saw his hut burning. It caught fire due to harsh sun!

Now, he lost every shred of hope and started crying and cursing God for his plight! That night again he had to sleep out under the sky!

Next morning , he woke to a sound of hooter and saw a ship coming towards the island! The smoke 💨 ,due to fire, sent the signal and ship came to rescue him!

He was happy and started dancing with joy!

At times, we might feel stuck in a situation, lonely and disgusted! But we must try work hard towards our better tomorrow!

We must build our own hut and God must burn it! Don't curse God or your fate!

As it's the signal that even a bigger ship will arrive to rescue u from the situation. Never lose hope as an opportunity might be waiting for u on the other side of hill!

All you need to do is to Keep Walking!!

NGT ban on Real Estate Construction to curb pollution menace in NCR: One more hurdle for the sector!!

Just when most of the Real Estate projects are at fag-end of construction and developers have arranged for labour, money and material, NGT has banned the construction activities to curb the Air pollution in Delhi NCR.

Delhi has been suffering from Air pollution for over past two decades!!

Earlier, Public Transport running on diesel fuel was converted into CNG vehicles to curb vehicular pollution.

Then, factories were shifted out of Delhi to curb air pollution!

Later, Yamuna river cleaning proved to be a futile exercise! 

In last 20 years, the Government of Delhi NCT could not chalk out a decisive policy to curb Air and water pollution despite being pulled up by Hon'ble Delhi High Court on various occasions. 

The already failed 'Odd-Even Car formula' has been compelled upon Delhites time and again. The Delhi Govt along with Central Govt could not stop the traffic and pollution menace created by Trucks entering Delhi.

There have been various reasons for Air pollution but, it seems that only the Real Estate is the scapegoat for anything and everything. 

In last few years, the Government and Hon'ble Courts have acted on isolated basis to address the problem of Air pollution in Delhi NCR.  

This most important barometer of the Economic growth is constantly at the receiving end for anything happening in the Social, Political, Economical or Environmental arena.

Just after 2009, when most of the real estate projects were in crucial stage of structure construction, political baby 'MNERGA' took away major amount of labour, which was working on the real estate projects.

Please note that the Real Estate Sector is a labour intensive sector and is the second largest employer in the country after Agriculture sector. Due to lack of adequate number of labour, sector suffered and projects got delayed.

At the same time, real estate sector got worst hit by the global economic slow-down. The cost of funding jumped by 2-3 times and impacted the real estate projects in worst manner. 

All through the developers have been under tremendous pressure to keep the projects and jobs in the sector floating and arrange funds from non-banking finance sector at exorbitantly high-interest rates, because RBI issued guidelines to banks to "not to lend to real estate sector". 

The Real Estate Sector does not have an 'Industry' status, hence it gets red-flagged in bank's book of accounts and suffers with NPA issue! 

Then another political drama on 'Land Acquisition' took a toll on the real estate project development as agitated farmers halted the construction activities at various real estate projects in and around NCR. 

Delhi NCR took the worst hit and paid the price for being geographically close to the political corridors!! 

Till date there is no clarity on Land Acquisition Act or procedure!!

The Construction is otherwise also obstructed throughout the year. Post June, its both monsoon and the festival season, which hurts the pace of construction of projects! Realistically, construction takes place only for 8-9 months in a year, at good pace!!

Then, at the final stage of Construction, came NGT order, which halted projects in Noida. 

Then came the era of Consumer Activism, which was well supported by Hon'ble Courts and by-and-large all major developers were at the receiving end of court verdicts. Many developers went over-board and ignored various compliances and regulations. The consumers were taken for a ride and arbitrary decisions by developers intimidated the customers.

The sales came to almost a standstill and things haven't improved much!! The end-users are sitting at the fence waiting for sky to be clear!


Almost, in all of these projects civil construction is completed and internal finishing is going on, which does not produce so much dust and pollution!!

Now, at the fag-ends of project completion the NGT decision brings the construction activities to halt and it would delay the Real Estate projects. 

Also, implementation of RERA authorities is taking time and due to lack of clarity, the developers are apprehensive of launching new real estate project.

The ill-informed, myopic view on the sector is killing the sector by killing the investments in the sector and shattering the dreams of common man to own their houses and employees in the sector are losing their livelihood!!

Its high time, the Governments should realise the importance of a collective, cohesive and comprehensive approach towards sorting out issues related to the Real Estate sector and help the major contributor the nation's GDP and the second largest employer of the country!! 

http://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/realtors-oppose-ban-on-construction-work-in-delhi-ncr/55325372

Disclaimer: These are my personal views in my personal capacity. 

GDP Growth rate: cautious approach

In my earlier blog, I mentioned that the Indian economy should grow at a steady and sustainable pace and should not be forced into a bull run. The GDP growth rate at 5.5%-6%, for next two-three fiscal years, would be suitable for a long-run sustainable economic growth.

Although, the green shoots of economic growth are visible, it is the time to nurture them well and wait patiently to see how they stem up before actually harvesting them.

Investment houses, brokers and analysts seem to be in a hurry to show off their optimism and in their desperation, are ignoring that the growth could only be sustainable, when it is consolidated well before moving to the next level.

Broking houses and investment analysts are justified in their enthusiasm in projecting GDP growth of 6.5% by FY 17, as they have not seen such level of optimism in the market, for at least, last 5 years.

Meanwhile, investors should consider that while, CPI has touched below 8% mark, any rise in global Oil prices and Rupee-Dollar equation may see Inflation going up.

The economists and bankers like Mr Keki Mistry, Chairman HDFC, Mr Aditya Puri, MD, HDFC Bank have been quoted in media expressing that it might take 6-8 quarters, before the investment measures would start yielding results.

Also, the key sectors i.e. Manufacturing, Agriculture, Energy, Infrastructure are still in the recovery mode. Although promoters and investors have subscribed to the growth story, they are still not confident of putting money on the block. The investment in manufacturing and infrastructure sector are yet to be rolled out and require traveling some distance before being reflected in the economic data.

The broking houses and investment analysts should work towards creating a environment conducive for FPOs and IPOs, so that retail investors may participate in the growth story as secondary market has become quite expensive.

Again, the word of caution would be on valuation of such FPOs/ IPOs. SEBI must ensure that the Investment Bankers / Promoters must leave enough on the table for the Retail Investors.

These would be good options for corporate to raise equity at a reasonable cost, when cost of funding has become unviable.

But, investors must discount over-enthusiasm and the Economists should consider all aspects before projecting GDP growth numbers as such inflated Economic Data, infused with over-enthusiasm, may not only hamper investor interests but also may prove fatal for overall economy as it would deter the investor sentiments. 

reference: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/India-Rating-raises-India-GDP-forecast/articleshow/39809339.cms

"The Higher GDP growth in June quarter @ 5.7% leads to higher inflation". I strongly feel that the Indian Economy must grow at a steady and sustainable pace and should not be forced into a bull run. The GDP growth rate at 5.5%-6%, for next two-three fiscal years, would be suitable for a long-run sustainable economic growth.

I mentioned my thoughts in my blog (link mentioned below) as:

http://avinashsrivastava.blogspot.in/2014/08/would-8-gdp-growth-rate-be-sustainable.html

Also, MINT newspaper mentioned the same thoughts in its article on "The GDP numbers: treat with care, don’t take recovery for granted"

Read more at:http://www.livemint.com/Money/9H7XX4cVHCsJU1BeeB4w6H/GDP-numbers-treat-with-care-dont-take-recovery-for-grante.html?utm_source=copy
http://www.livemint.com/Money/9H7XX4cVHCsJU1BeeB4w6H/GDP-numbers-treat-with-care-dont-take-recovery-for-grante.html

8% GDP growth rate...why are we in a hurry!

The recent rally in the Sensex and Nifty reflects the faith of investors in the sluggish Indian economy. The recent upsurge in our stock market has also coincided with a falling inflation trajectory and strengthening rupee.

 

With optimism is at its peak, investors and analysts are predicting Sensex to cross 30000 points in next 8-12 months. The overall market & investor sentiment seems to have improved with regular feeds of key Economic Data. The experts expect the Indian GDP to achieve 8% growth level very soon.

Till very recent, Indian economy was reeling under a slow growth regime and the gap between the GDP growth rate and rate of inflation has widened majorly since 2010. This had resulted in high interest regime and made economic activities, expensive and unviable. It caused major sufferings for common man as high-interests, high commodity prices, low manufacturing, agriculture and service sector performances created a gloomy season, which further widened the income disparities forcing people to curtail their expenditures, reflecting in further economic slowdown and job cuts.

In this case, I believe in the old saying “slow and steady wins the race”. Since, an inflated growth rate may result in a continuous and persistent high inflation rate, which may further warrant high-interest rates.

The high inflation rates would adversely impact companies with high debts. The high inflation rate would also adversely impact market sentiments, investor moods and fortunes of industrial activities, which could get into another vicious cycle of low spends, job cuts etc.

The higher interest rates would mean higher cost of money and would further result as limited spending in the economy. 

Hence, I strongly feel that the Indian economy must grow at a steady and sustainable pace and should not be forced into a bull run. The GDP growth rate at 5.5%-6%, for next two-three fiscal years, would be suitable for a long-run sustainable economic growth, which would allow poorest of the poor to participate in the India growth story and would not be reeling under high cost-high inflation regime. 

A steady GDP growth rate would even avert any major upsurge in inflation and the overall economic activities would remain sustainable, while the overall growth story remains inclusive!

Yes DLF! to Yes Maximum!

Yes DLF to Yes Maximum

Cricket offers lots of exciting moments during the game. IPL, the latest and shortest format of the game offers a complete entertainment package, as it engages people across age-groups, demographics and geographies,  while offering one of the biggest platform to the brands.

IPL, as an engaging event, holds opportunities for the brands and has brought in investments to the game, and the number crunchers actually started comparing it with EPL and NBA. More and more investments got attracted as more and more brands were light struck by sheer glamour and energy.

The money not only helped nurturing the budding talents but also supported old hands at cricket by  engaging them through various ways and means.

In the initial stages of IPL there were lot of apprehensions about success of the format and midst of all sorts of speculations came brands, which shown some real strength by not only committing themselves for trying something new, challenging and paved the path of success for themselves as well as for all others involved in India's biggest fanfare  has made some smart moves by creating and nurturing various properties.

DLF was the first sponsor in history of Indian Cricket to bring in the concept of deriving Maximum benefits through Title Sponsors as it volunteered to offer prizes to inspire young talent and established categories i.e. DLF Maximum Sixes Award and DLF Player of the League.

DLF helped not only players to win their prizes but also created opportunities for BCCI-IPL to earn money as well. It also helped brands like Yes Bank, as in round II of IPL (after initial 5 years when all Central sponsorships came to an end), BCCI raked in money through these categories and brands like Yes Bank bagged it for a cost. 

Is India still a preferred investment desti-nation?

Is India still a preferred investment desti-nation?

The potholes in the journey:

· Sinking GDP growth well below expectation: below 5% in FY 12-13. Q-on-Q  projections continue to fail.

o Govt must loosen its wallet strings to fund infrastructure projects across country.

o It is prudent to release major amount of money for infra projects primarily road, highways connecting major cities as well as rural roads

· Food Inflation (despite the government’s claims; aam aadmi has no respite from the food inflation)

FOOD Security bill:

o State governments must create a common knowledge pool for inclusive and sustainable rural development and agricultural produce.

• Central agencies shall take initiative under Agriculture Ministry

§  Focus on increasing agriculture produce

§  Need to launch another operation ‘Green’ and ‘Flood’

§  Increase Agriculture, Poultry, Dairy, Fisheries produce

·         Major dent of INR 3.5 trillion on exchequer as a result of Food security bill

REVENUE DEFICITS:

o   Both State and Central Govts shall bear the burden and simultaneously try to identify new source of revenues including increase in direct and indirect tax collections

o   DTC could be a major revenue driver

·         Fiscal deficit

·         Declining Rupee

o   This has been addressed to some extent  as dollars have started flowing in

·         Expensive Oil & Gas

·         Lack of implementation of reforms

·         Rising interest rates (rising NPAs of Banks)

·         Dip in industrial and manufacturing growth rate

·         FIIs pulling out investments from India

·         Grim situation in basic health, education, infrastructure, law & order

·         General elections in 2014

·         Indecision tendency of government

Major Legislations hanging with a thread in thin air

o   Lokpal

o   Land Acquisition

o   Real Estate Regulatory Bill

o   Pension Bill

o   100% FDI in Indian Retail

o   GST

o   Mining Bill